Authors
Kushel HM is a mechanical engineer-turned-journalist, who loves all things football, tennis and films. He was with the news desk at the Hindustan Times, Mumbai, before joining Newschecker.
Pankaj Menon is a fact-checker based out of Delhi who enjoys ‘digital sleuthing’ and calling out misinformation. He has completed his MA in International Relations from Madras University and has worked with organisations like NDTV, Times Now and Deccan Chronicle online in the past.
Claim
Fertility rate for Muslims is significantly higher than that of other religions in India.
Fact
Viral posts misleadingly combine official data from 1992-93 and 2019-21; the community has actually experienced the sharpest drop in fertility rate compared to other religions.
Several social media users are sharing posts, which purportedly compare fertility rates of different religions in India. The fertility rate of the Muslim community is significantly higher than the corresponding figures of other religions, leading to the users demanding that a population control law be implemented urgently, especially for a “particular community”.
According to the viral posts, the religion-wise fertility rates are as follows:
- 𝐇𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐮: 1.94
- 𝐌𝐮𝐬𝐥𝐢𝐦: 4.4
- 𝐒𝐢𝐤𝐡: 1.61
- 𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐧: 1.88
- 𝐉𝐚𝐢𝐧: 1.6
- 𝐁𝐮𝐝𝐝𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭: 1.39
The archived version of the post can be seen here.
Fact Check
Newschecker noticed that the year was not mentioned for the given data, raising our doubts over its authenticity.
We then looked up the latest National Family Health Survey (2019-21), published by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, where we found the religion-wise data for total fertility rate (the average number of children born per woman) for the three years preceding the survey, on page 124 (below) .
We can clearly see that while the fertility rates for the Hindu, Christian, Sikh, Jain and Buddhist communities were the same as mentioned in the viral post, the figure for Muslims was incorrect. According to the document, the TFR for Muslims was 2.36 and not 4.4 as claimed.
A further search led us to the first NFHS report from 1992-93, where we can see on page 8 (above) that the TFR for Muslims was 4.4, which proved that two sets of data were conflated to present a misleading picture.
| RELIGION | TFR (2019-21 NFHS REPORT) | TFR (1992-93 NFHS REPORT) |
| 𝐇𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐮 | 1.94 | 3.3 |
| 𝐌𝐮𝐬𝐥𝐢𝐦 | 2.36 | 4.4 |
| 𝐒𝐢𝐤𝐡 | 1.61 | <3 |
| 𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐧 | 1.88 | <3 |
| 𝐉𝐚𝐢𝐧 | 1.60 | <3 |
| 𝐁𝐮𝐝𝐝𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭 | 1.39 | <3 |
Newschecker saw that even though the latest TFR for Muslims is higher than that of other religions, the community has also experienced the sharpest drop in fertility rate at 46.3%, compared to Hindus (41.2%), while comparing the data between 1992-93 and 2019-21. News reports on the drop can be seen here and here, proving that the viral claim was false.
Also Read: Freak Ferris Wheel Accident Involving UP Teenager Shared With False Caste Violence Angle
Conclusion
Communally charged social media posts compare Hindu, Muslim fertility rates from different time periods to present a misleading picture.
Result: False
Source
NFHS (2019-21) report
NFHS (1992-93) report
Times of India report, May 8, 2022
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Authors
Kushel HM is a mechanical engineer-turned-journalist, who loves all things football, tennis and films. He was with the news desk at the Hindustan Times, Mumbai, before joining Newschecker.
Pankaj Menon is a fact-checker based out of Delhi who enjoys ‘digital sleuthing’ and calling out misinformation. He has completed his MA in International Relations from Madras University and has worked with organisations like NDTV, Times Now and Deccan Chronicle online in the past.
