Authors
Vasudha noticed the growing problem of mis/disinformation online after studying New Media at ACJ in Chennai and became interested in separating facts from fiction. She is interested in learning how global issues affect individuals on a micro level. Before joining Newschecker’s English team, she was working with Latestly.
Kushel HM is a mechanical engineer-turned-journalist, who loves all things football, tennis and films. He was with the news desk at the Hindustan Times, Mumbai, before joining Newschecker.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently sparked a controversy when he made an incorrect assertion regarding the outcome of the 2024 Indian general elections during a podcast where he discussed the erosion of public trust in governments around the world since the Covid pandemic hit in 2020. Zuckerberg singled out India as an example of incumbents losing every national election in 2024, claiming that the BJP-led government lost the general elections last year.
“…the reaction to Covid probably caused a breakdown in trust in a lot of governments around the world…2024 was a big election year around the world and…all these countries, India, had elections… The incumbents basically lost every single one…There is some sort of a global phenomenon – whether it was because of inflation or the economic policies to deal with Covid or just how the governments dealt with Covid. It seems to have had this effect that’s global,” Zuckerberg is heard saying 17:40 minutes into the interview with popular podcaster Joe Rogan on January 10, 2025.
Union Minister Fact-Checks Zuckerberg’s Claim
Union minister of Railways, Information & Broadcasting, Electronics, and Information Technology Ashwini Vaishnaw on Monday (January 13) took to X to refute Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s assertion that most incumbent governments, including India’s BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), had lost their positions post-Covid pandemic. Vaishnaw said that the claims were “factually incorrect”, while expressing disappointment over the spread of misinformation by Meta’s CEO.
2024 Lok Sabha Elections: Analysing The Numbers
The incumbent BJP-led NDA secured a majority in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, leading to a third consecutive term for Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister. The BJP emerged as the largest party in the general elections, winning 240 of the 543 seats, but fell 32 short of the majority mark of 272. The BJP’s key allies JD(U), TDP, and SHS bagged 12, 16 and 7 seats respectively, ensuring that the NDA coalition won enough seats to form the government at the Centre.
The saffron party, however, witnessed a drop in its seat tally in the 2024 election, compared to its previous performances in 2019 (303 seats) and 2014 (282 seats). Interestingly, an HT analysis found that while popular support for the party was not that different from that in 2014 or 2019, its ability to convert them to seats had decreased in the elections — BJP’s vote share in 2014 and 2019 was 31% and 37.3%. This number was 36.6% in 2024.
Source: ECI’s statistical reports on the 2014, 2019 and 2024 general elections.
Global Political Landscape: ‘Bad Year For Incumbents’
Multiple major media outlets, seen here and here, wrote about how 2024 has been a remarkably bad year for incumbents. “This was the first year since records began in 1905 that every incumbent party lost vote share in developed countries holding elections, according to data from ParlGov, an independent database run by the University of Bremen in Germany and first analyzed by the Financial Times newspaper,” read an NBC report, dated December 31, 2024.
However, despite the drop in vote shares, several incumbent governments, including in India, did hold on to power in various national elections last year, notably in South Africa, Japan, Ireland and Taiwan, among others.
“2024 was a remarkable year for elections as voters in more than 60 countries went to the polls. It also turned out to be a difficult year for incumbents and traditional political parties. Rattled by rising prices, divided over cultural issues and angry at the political status quo, voters in many countries sent a message of frustration,” read a Pew Research Centre report on Global Elections in 2024, dated December 11, 2024, which found that in multiple nations where the incumbents won, they suffered significant setbacks. For instance, “In South Africa, the African National Congress failed to win a majority of National Assembly seats for the first time since the end of apartheid,” the report stated, while also noting that PM Narendra Modi and his BJP won a third consecutive victory but were forced into a coalition government.
Since the pandemic hit in 2020, incumbents have been removed from office in 40 of 54 elections in Western democracies, reportedly said Steven Levitsky, a political scientist at Harvard University, revealing “a huge incumbent disadvantage”, even as the November 17, 2024 Fortune article pointed out that although the issues driving voter discontent have varied widely, there has been almost universal malaise since the pandemic as people and businesses struggle to get back on their feet while facing stubbornly high prices, cash-strapped governments and a surge in migration.
In conclusion, while the BJP did witness a decrease in vote share in the 2024 general elections, it managed to retain power for a third consecutive term with a coalition government, similar to other countries, contradicting the Meta founder’s claim of incumbents losing every national election in 2024.
UPDATE ON 14/01/2025: Meta is reportedly set to receive a summons from the Parliamentary Standing Committee over its chief Mark Zuckerberg’s comments on the 2024 Indian general elections. In a post on X, dated January 14, 2025, BJP MP and chairman of the House panel on Communication and Information Technology Nishikant Dubey accused Zuckerberg of spreading misinformation.
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Authors
Vasudha noticed the growing problem of mis/disinformation online after studying New Media at ACJ in Chennai and became interested in separating facts from fiction. She is interested in learning how global issues affect individuals on a micro level. Before joining Newschecker’s English team, she was working with Latestly.
Kushel HM is a mechanical engineer-turned-journalist, who loves all things football, tennis and films. He was with the news desk at the Hindustan Times, Mumbai, before joining Newschecker.
