Authors
Pankaj Menon is a fact-checker based out of Delhi who enjoys ‘digital sleuthing’ and calling out misinformation. He has completed his MA in International Relations from Madras University and has worked with organisations like NDTV, Times Now and Deccan Chronicle online in the past.
New Delhi: Set to go to polls in less than two months, UP’s crime rate was bound to come up in the election discourse at some point or another, and the moment has finally come. The state is seeing a frenzy of inaugurations and foundation-stone-laying ceremonies. In one such event on 3rd December 2021, Home Minister Amit Shah, who was in the state to lay the foundation stone of Maa Shakhumbhari University in Saharanpur, made tall claims about the progress Uttar Pradesh has demonstrated in its law and order situation and women’s safety and decline in UP’s crime rate.
Speaking at the event, Shah claimed that UP’s crime rate fell under the Yogi Adityanath government. Shah said, “In reality, crime has gone down by almost 60% during the Yogi government’s tenure. I have figures that speak for themselves.” He went on to read out more statistics saying, “I have brought a comparison between the 5 years of Yogiji and you (Akhilesh Yadav). Dacoity has gone down by 70% under the Yogi government. Incidents of looting by using weapons have gone down by 69%. Murders went down by 30%. Deaths due to dowry have gone down by 22.5%.”
Ahead of the assembly elections scheduled in the state, Newschecker attempted to check the veracity of the Home Minister’s statement that crime in UP has decreased by 60% since Yogi Adityanath took over as Chief Minister in 2017 and the truth behind the other statistics quoted by the Home Minister. We began by analysing UP’s crime rate.
Claim 1: Crime has gone down 60%
Newschecker began by comparing the rate of total cognizable crimes under the Akhilesh Yadav government and the Yogi Adityanath government.
On verifying the NCRB data, with 1,98,093 cases under the IPC, UP’s total cognizable crimes stood at 96.4 in 2012 when Akhilesh Yadav took over as the CM of India’s most populous state on 15th March 2012.
This continued to increase further and in 2017, when the BJP came to power, the state saw 3,10,084 cases under the IPC and a crime rate of 139.3. As was the case under Akhilesh Yadav, the rate of total cognizable offences under the Yogi government also rose continuously reaching an all-time high of 156.3 in 2019, before marginally dropping to 155.1 in 2020, the pandemic year. The total number of cognizable offences in 2020 was 3,55,110.
Thus, a comparison of the government’s own data shows that incidents of crime, as well as the UP’s crime rate prevalent, has steadily risen both under the Samajwadi Party as well as the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party.
Result: False
Claim 2: Murders down by 30%
While the overall cognizable offences rose in UP, the figures for serious offences such as murder show slight improvement.
On examining the number of murders reported in the state, the difference is stark. In 2012, UP reported 4,966 murder cases, increasing to 5,047 in 2013, 5,150 in 2014 before dropping to 4,732 in 2015. While 2016 saw a marginal rise, reporting 4,889 cases, the downward trend had begun earlier in 2015.
The numbers continue to show a downward trend after the Yogi government took over. While in 2017, the murder cases registered under the IPC in UP stood at 4,324, it dropped to 4,018 in 2018 and further to 3,806 in 2019. The rate of murder in 2019 was 1.7. In 2020, the pandemic year that saw prolonged lockdowns and restrictions, the number further dropped to 3,779.
Thus, an analysis of incidents and the rate of murder in Uttar Pradesh recorded by the NCRB reveals that murder cases started seeing a downward trend from 2015 onwards. While it can be observed that the murder incidents continued to see a fall under the Yogi government as opposed to the Akhilesh government, Newschecker’s analysis reveals that it fell by 19.67% and not 30% as claimed by the Home Minister.
Result: Misleading
Claim 3: Dacoity has gone down 70%
The same trend has been observed with dacoity.
While the Akhilesh government saw high instances of dacoity in the first two years of his tenure as chief minister, the incidents started showing a downward trend from 2014 onwards.
The highest rate of dacoity recorded during the Samajwadi party’s rule stood at 596 instances in 2013, following which, the cases of dacoity began a downward trend, dropping drastically to 294 in 2014, and 277 in 2015, and 284 in 2016.
Under the Yogi administration the downward trend continued. While 263 cases of dacoity were reported in 2017, and the numbers show a steady decline with 144 cases in 2018 and hovered around 120 in both 2019 and 2020.
Comparing an average of the number of reported dacoities in the two regimes, we find a consistent downward trend since 2013. Newschecker’s analysis indicates that this corresponds to a 54% fall dacoity cases in the state and not 70% as claimed by the Home Minister.
Result: Misleading
Also Read: No, UP’s Unemployment Rate Was Not 17.5% When Yogi Adityanath Took over As CM
Claim 4: Dowry deaths down by 22.5%
Dowry deaths, as opposed to what the Home Minister claimed, have sustained pace, with a crime rate of 2.3 (2,244 cases) in 2012 to 2.4 in 2017 (2,524 cases), going to 2.1 (2,274 cases)in the pandemic year.
The graph below gives a better understanding of the rate of dowry deaths in Uttar Pradesh over the years.
Thus, we find that the number of dowry deaths in the state have not come down by 22.5% as was claimed by the Home Minister but are up by 1.73% instead.
Result: False
Conclusion
Thus we find that in Uttar Pradesh, as opposed to the Home Minister’s claim,
1) Total cognizable crimes (IPC) has gone up by 43% and are not down by 60%
2) Dacoity has gone down by 54% and not by 70%
3) Murders went down by 19.67% and not 30%
4) Dowry deaths are up by 1.73% and not down by 22.5%
Sources
NCRB
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Authors
Pankaj Menon is a fact-checker based out of Delhi who enjoys ‘digital sleuthing’ and calling out misinformation. He has completed his MA in International Relations from Madras University and has worked with organisations like NDTV, Times Now and Deccan Chronicle online in the past.
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