With the state assembly polls due shortly, Uttar Pradesh is turning into a battleground. High octane campaigns and shrill misinformation have turned up the political heat in the state. But are the real issues concerning development and governance getting lost in the din of politics? Newschecker attempts to quantify key indicators of the state and observe how better or worse off the state is after five years of BJP rule.
GROSS STATE DOMESTIC PRODUCT & PER CAPITA GSDP
GSDP is the sum total of value added by different economic sectors (Agriculture, Industry & Services) produced within the boundaries of the state calculated without duplication during a year. It is one of the measures of economic growth for a state’s economy.
UP’s GSDP in 2017 when Yogi Adityanath took over as chief minister of the state was 10,57,74,712. The GSDP rose during the next two years, to 11,23,98,196 in 2018 and 11,66,81,747 in 2019. But the year 2020-2021, that saw the pandemic break out, saw the GDP fall to 10,92,62,381.
Looking at the per capita GSDP for Uttar Pradesh, according to RBI data, the per capita GSDP in 2020-2021 was less than half of the India average of Rs 86,659. The per capita GSDP that was at Rs 41,832 during 2017 when Yogi Adityanath took over further rose to Rs 43,670 and Rs 44,618 during the 2018 and 2019. But as was the trend observed with the GDP, it fell to Rs 41,023 in 2020-2021, lower than the per capita income of Uttar Pradesh in 2017, when the BJP came to power.
In terms of employment under the Yogi regime, the result is mixed. Going by the CMIE data, while the rate of unemployment has been brought down from the 16% levels in 2016, the number of unemployed has, in fact, risen under the Yogi government. The labour force participation has also gone down.
In January- April 2017, the number of people who were unemployed was 39.8 lakhs, whereas the number rose to 58.1 lakhs in September–December 2021.
Meanwhile the labour force participation rate has also decreased over the years. From 38.4% in January–April 2017, the LPR is now at its lowest since the Yogi administration took over, at 34.45%.
Looking at the gender-wise LPR in the state, the Labour Participation Rate among men has fallen from 67.96% in Jan-April 2017 to 62.90% in September-December 2021. Meanwhile, the Labour participation rate among women dropped from 3.89% to 2.53%.
Labour force participation rate is defined as the section of the working population in the age group of 16-64 in the economy currently employed or seeking employment. When there are fewer jobs, people are discouraged to focus on employment which eventually leads to lower participation rate.
LAW & ORDER
In terms of law and order, data from the NCRB reveals that UP has reported a steady increase in IPC crimes from the time Yogi Adityanath took over as the CM. The same trend was observed during the previous government’s tenure as well. While UP reported a total of 3,10,084 IPC crimes in 2017, the number steadily rose to 3,42,355 and 3,53,131 during 2018 and 2019, and in 2020, the pandemic year, the number rose yet again to 3,55,110.
But a closer look at the nature of crimes reveals a different trend. Serious crimes such as murder and rapes have recorded a drop. For instance, while UP reported 4,324 murder cases in 2017, the number fell to 3,779 in 2020.
The same trend was observed with rape, which fell from 4,245 in 2017 to 2,769 in 2020.
But other crime heads such as assault on women and dowry deaths have shown a different trend. While the number of cases of assault on women was 12,607 in the year 2017, it hovered around the same range in 2019, with 11,988 cases. The number dropped to 9,864 in 2020, the year that saw widespread curbs and repeated lockdowns due to the pandemic.
Dowry deaths and domestic abuse, recorded not much difference. While 2017 saw 2,524 dowry deaths, 2020 saw 2,274 instances of dowry deaths.
Domestic abuse saw a spike, with 12,653 instances of domestic abuse in 2017, whereas 14,454 instances of domestic abuse in 2020.
When it comes to the law enforcement infrastructure, the numbers, though improved, are still far from perfect. According to data by the Bureau of Police Research the number of police per lakh population was 90.4, whereas the sanctioned figure was 187.8. While this number gradually increased over the next four years, it was still below the sanctioned figure of 183.19 in 2020, with 133.85 police per lakh population.
Uttar Pradesh had a particularly high population per police (PPP). While the sanctioned PPP for the state in 2017 was 532.62, the actual PPP was 1106.51. This figure gradually reduces over the years though, with sanctioned PPP for 2020 being 545.87, while the actual PPP was still high, at 747.1.
Uttar Pradesh has been one of the states that has seen a steady increase in the allocation for health in the budget. From Rs 17,181 crore in 2017-2018 budget to over Rs 32,000 crore in the 2021-2022 budget, the state has seen increasing allocation in terms of health. Looking at the percentage of the amount budgeted with respect to total budget, it has hovered around the 5.5% mark till 2020, and saw an allocation of 6.3% in 2021-2022.
Looking at the health infrastructure in the state, according to the national health profile data the number of PHCs in Uttar Pradesh has gone down from 3,497 in 2017, when the Yogi Administration took charge, to 3,473 in 2021. But the number of hospital beds in the state has gone up from 59,945 in 2017 to 66,700 in 2021.
As for the number of doctors, according to data from RBI, the state had a shortfall of 1,288 doctors at the PHCs, which was brought down to 121 vacancies in 2020. In terms of the shortfall of specialists such as Ob-Gyn and surgeons and pediatricians, the number was marginally down from 2,608 in 2015 to 2,028 in 2020.
Other health indicators have only shown a slight improvement. According to data from National Health and Family Survey, in 2015-2016, UP reported 52.40% prevalence of anemia among women, which dropped slightly to 50.40% in the 2019-2021 period.
While infant mortality has shown a sharp fall from 63.5 in 2015-2016 to 50.4 in 2019-2021, severe wastage among kids actually increased from 6.00% in 2015-2016, to 7.30% in 2019-2021.
Stunting among children under the age of five also showed improvement, with figures dropping from 46% 2015-2016 to 39.70% in 2019-2021.
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